TODAY’S STUDY: STRONG WINDS WORLDWIDE

Watching the people of Libya and Yemen demand the dictatorial Old Guard step aside for the undeniable New Leaders of a democratic tomorrow calls to mind the similar inevitability of New Energy, no matter how desperately the Old Energies cling to their domineering, destructive, toxic and polluting ways.

In the last twelve months, a West Virginia coal mine cave-in killed 24 and exposed the vulgarity of Big Coal’s cost cutting. And an offshore oil well blew up, killed 11 and exposed the vulgarity of Big Oil’s cost cutting. And Japan’s failsafe nuclear plant protections failed, bringing the world’s 3rd biggest economy to its knees and wreaking who knows how much human health harm, an outcome at least partly attributable to the utility’s decision to not spend enough to protect cooling systems from the unimaginable.

The common theme is obvious: The Old Energies have been desperately cutting costs. Why? Because they know competition is coming. Forget what Old Energy propagandists and the uninformed say on television and radio.

Not enough New Energy? As the report highlighted below about the continuing growth of wind in the world makes clear, the resource is there and the infrastructure can be built rapidly. There will be abundant supplies of New Energy when the world makes a commitment to build it.

Too costly? How costly are cave-ins and oil spills and meltdowns and lung cancer and radioactive milk?

The wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t shine at night? The wind is always blowing somewhere and the sun’s heat can be stored and there will be high capacity transmission and there are predictable waves and currents and tides and 24/7 geothermal.

The naysayers are delivering yesterday’s news.

Like all big business, energy is market-driven. But unlike most market players who can barely think beyond the current fiscal quarter, energy must think in terms of years and decades. The Old Energies have seen their nearly peaking reserves, coming emissions prices and rapidly increasing New Energy economies of scale. Perhaps not for this year, but surely by the end of this decade, the Old Energies know New Energy is coming, are scared and are trying to keep their costs competitive – but they cannot hold back the future.

Like the rising tide of humanity demanding to be heard in the Middle East and North Africa, the logic of the inexhaustible, emissions-free, everywhere domestically available sun, wind, deep heat and flowing waters of this good earth is undeniable and will have its way.

Like the nervous Old Energies, the marketplace knows what’s happening. Investment in New Energy keeps growing. The world solar photovoltaics (PV) market went from $2.5 billion in 2000 to $71.2 billion in 2010, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.8 percent. The global market for wind went from $4.5 billion in 2000 to $60.5+ billion in 2010, a CAGR of 29.7 percent.

Is it slowing? The latest numbers from Clean Edge, as highlighted in yesterday’s lead post, say no. Total world solar PV, wind, and biofuels revenues went from $139.1 billion in 2009 to $188.1 billion in 2010, a 35.2 percent increase. The rise of China and India are well-documented but here’s a new rub: It is widely agreed that the meltdown at Fukushima will back China and India off of their planned nuclear investments, further shifting momentum to New Energy.

In the U.S., it may take some short-term spending by the federal government to create some no-fly zones against the bullying of Old Energy in the form of a price on emissions – or at least a national mandate and a long-term tax incentive – but New Energy is something conservatives who want to conserve the creation and progressives who want economic progress can and eventually will agree on.

Those who stand in the way will go the way of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak – or, worse, the way of Libya’s Muammar Gaddaffi.

Global Wind Report; Annual Market Update 2010
March 2011 (Global Wind Energy Council)

Wind power in emerging economies

In 2010, for the first time ever, more new wind power capacity was installed in developing countries and emerging economies than in the traditional wind markets of the OECD.

This puts an end to the assertion that wind power is a premium technology only for rich countries which cannot be deployed at scale in other markets. It is also testament to the inherent attractiveness of wind power for countries striving to diversify their energy mix, improve their security of supply in the face of rapidly growing demand, and relieve national budgets of the burden of expensive fossil fuel imports at volatile prices. Environmental factors such as improving air quality and public health, and carbon reductions to fight against climate change also play an important role in many of these new markets.

There is also a noticeable shift in attitudes towards wind power in many countries. While the technology would have been dismissed as too expensive by many developing country energy planners just a few years ago, the continuing success of the technology in an ever widening group of countries has changed that attitude to one of dramatically increased knowledge about wind generation and the role that it can play in a country’s power mix.

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China

The growth of wind power outside of the OECD has been primarily driven by the continuing boom in China, which is now the country with the largest installed wind power capacity in the world. The Chinese government has a clear commitment to developing the country’s massive wind resource, partly driven by the need for increasing its power generation capacity to fuel a growing economy and to spur rural economic development. Furthermore, the Chinese government is committed to slowing down the country’s increasing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing air pollution. This political commitment was underpinned by favourable policies to boost wind power development, and this has led to exceptional growth in this sector. After four years of doubling its installed wind capacity from 2006-2009, a record capacity of 16.5 GW was added to the Chinese wind fleet in 2010, taking the total up to 42.3 GW. Wind power now represents nearly a fifth of all yearly net power generation capacity additions in China, nearly on par with hydro.

Beyond wind power’s environmental and energy security benefits, the Chinese government also recognises the economic opportunity of building a strong domestic manufacturing base. In 2009, out of the world’s top ten wind turbine manufacturers, three were Chinese, and annual domestic production capacity is now at least 30 GW. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly looking at international markets, and it is expected that Chinese wind turbines will soon be fully competing in the global market place. (For more information on China, see p. 30)

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India

A similar picture is emerging in India, albeit on a smaller scale. A rapidly growing economy and expanding population create a growing demand for power, and supply struggles to keep up with demand. Electricity shortages are common, and a significant part of the population has no access to electricity at all. In order to address this problem, the Indian government created a target of an additional 78.7 GW of generation capacity from 2007-2012, 10.5 GW of which will be new wind generation capacity. The Indian Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) estimates that there is a potential of 48.5 GW of wind power development, but industry experts estimate that a minimum of 100 GW could be realised in India. At the end of 2010, India had 13.1 GW of installed wind capacity, with 40% operating in the southern state of Tamil Nadu.

Like in China, India’s wind power development has spurred domestic manufacturing, and the Indian company Suzlon is now a global leader. 17 companies now manufacture wind power equipment in India, with a production capacity of 7.5 GW per year. Thanks to new market entrants, it is expected that this will rise to 17 GW or more by 2013, according to the World Institute for Sustainable Energy (WISE). Wind turbines and turbine blades made in India have been exported to the USA, Europe, Australia, China and Brazil…

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Wind power uptake in emerging economies – A trend for the future?

Given the vast potential for wind power development in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, GWEC’s Global Wind Energy Outlook “advanced scenario” forecasts that by 2020, more than 40% of the total global wind power capacity could be installed in these regions, up from 31% at the end of 2010.1 Given the swing in the 2010 market, this shift could be even more pronounced. China will continue to drive this development, hosting more than half of the wind power operating outside of the OECD by 2020, but other markets in the rest of Asia, Latin America and Africa are also expected to contribute substantially to the global total. While there are strong economic, supply security and environmental drivers for wind power in developing countries and emerging economies, a key determining factor for realising the vast potential will be the political will of governments to make this happen. Favourable support schemes, financial incentives, adequate grid infrastructure and access to financing are some key conditions required for allowing wind power to thrive in these countries.

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The global status of wind power in 2010

The expectations for wind power market growth in 2010 were mixed, as the low level of orders seen during the financial crisis worked their way through the system. The results of this were felt much more strongly in 2010 than in the previous year, and the overall annual market shrunk by 7% to 35.8 GW, down from 38.6 GW in 2009. The new capacity added in 2010 represents investments worth EUR 47.3 billion (USD 65 billion).

The US market installed almost 50% less than in 2009. In the European market, new installed capacity in 2010 was 7.5% down on 2009, despite a 50% growth of the offshore market in countries like the UK, Denmark and Belgium, and rapid growth in Eastern Europe, led by Romania, Bulgaria and Poland.

Despite the decrease in annual installations, global installed wind power capacity increased by 22.5% during the year, and now stands at 194.4 GW. For most other sectors that have not become accustomed to growth rates of 30% or more, this would represent a major achievement. The main markets driving growth continue to be Asia and Europe, which installed 19 GW and 9.9 GW respectively in 2010. However, emerging markets in Latin America are beginning to take off, led by Brazil and Mexico. In cumulative terms, the Latin America and Caribbean market grew by more than 53% during 2010.

For the first time in 2010, more than half of all new wind power was added outside of the traditional markets of Europe and North America. This was mainly driven by the continuing boom in China, which accounted for nearly half the new global wind installations, with 16.5 GW. China now has 42.3 GW of wind power, and has surpassed the US to claim the number one spot in terms of total installed capacity.

The outlook for 2011 is more optimistic, with overall investment in wind power in 2010 up by 31% to reach USD 96 billion (EUR 70.4 billion), according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). This investment gives rise to some optimism going forward, as it is likely to translate into actual projects in 2011 and 2012. It is notable that 38% of this total investment was accounted for by China and by large European offshore wind farms. China leads booming markets in Asia For the third year in a row, Asia was the world’s largest regional market for wind energy, with capacity additions amounting to more than 19 GW.

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China was the world’s largest market in 2010, adding a staggering 16.5 GW of new capacity, and slipping past the USA to become the world’s leading wind power country. The Chinese market more than doubled its capacity from 12 GW in 2008 to 25.8 GW in 2009 and added 16.5 MW in 2010 to reach 42.2 GW at the end of 2010.

The growing wind power market in China has encouraged domestic production of wind turbines and components, and the Chinese manufacturing industry is becoming increasingly mature, stretching over the whole supply chain. China has now become the world’s largest producer of wind energy equipment, and components made in China are now starting to not only satisfy domestic demand, but also meet international needs. Two Chinese companies, Sinovel and Goldwind, were already among the world’s top five turbine manufacturers in 2009, and there are first moves by Chinese manufacturers to enter international markets.

The planning, development and construction for the “Wind Base” programme, which aims to build 138 GW of wind capacity in eight Chinese provinces, is well underway. It is expected that in its twelfth Five-Year Plan, which is expected to be adopted in March 2011, the Chinese government will increase its official target for wind power development to 200 GW by 2020.

After a few years of slow growth, the Indian wind power market is now back on track and witnessed significant growth in 2010. It comes in third behind China and the USA in terms of new installed capacity during 2010 at 2,139 MW, taking total capacity up to 13.1 GW. The states with highest wind power concentration are Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh.

The country’s energy mix now boasts a share of 10.9% of renewable energy in terms of installed capacity, contributing about 4.13% to the electricity generation mix. Wind power accounts for 70% of this renewable installed capacity. In 2010 the official wind power potential estimates for India were revised upwards from 45 GW to 49.1 GW by the Centre for Wind Energy Technology (C-WET). However, the estimations of various industry associations and wind power producers are more optimistic, citing a potential in the range of 65-100 GW.

Other Asian countries with new capacity additions in 2010 include Japan (221 MW, for a total of 2.3 GW), South Korea (31 MW for a total of 379 MW) and Taiwan (83 MW for a total of 519 MW).

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North America: Disappointing USA results

The USA wind energy market installed 5.1 GW in 2010, only about half of the 2009 market. The country now has 40.2 GW of wind power capacity (up from 35.1 GW at the end of 2009), thereby conceding its global leadership to China.

38 of the 50 states now have utility-scale wind installations and 14 of those have more than 1,000 MW installed. Texas remains the leading state with more than 10 GW of total installed capacity and wind power now generates 7.8% of the state’s electricity needs.

Iowa is in second place with 3,675 MW, and now receives close to 20% of its electricity from wind power, followed by California, Minnesota and Washington State.

In terms of new capacity added in 2009, Texas again led the pack with 680 MW, followed by Illinois (498 MW), California (455 MW), South Dakota and Minnesota (396 MW each). The American manufacturing sector, meanwhile, appears to view 2010’s slowdown as short-term.

New component suppliers continued to enter the wind energy industry last year, and over 400 US manufacturing plants now serve the industry. Around half of the wind generation equipment deployed in the USA is now manufactured domestically. In addition, the construction pipeline for wind power is healthy, with 5,600 MW currently under construction. Given such indicators, the industry could finish 2011 well ahead of 2010 numbers.

Canada’s wind power market was also down in 2010 compared to the previous year, but it was still the second best year ever. 690 MW of new wind capacity came online, compared to 950 MW in 2009, taking the total capacity up to more than 4,000 MW.

Ontario leads Canada’s wind energy development with 1.5 GW of installed wind capacity. The province adopted its Green Energy Act in 2009, which introduced a feed-in tariff for wind power, and this is set to substantially boost wind power development in the province. Other leading wind energy provinces include Quebec (806 MW) and Alberta (663 MW).

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European growth driven by Eastern Europe and offshore wind

During 2010, 9,883 MW of wind power was installed across Europe, with European Union countries accounting for 9,259 MW of the total. This represents a decrease in the EU’s annual wind power installations of 10% compared to 2009. Of the 9,259 MW installed in the EU, 8,377 MW were installed onshore and 883 offshore. This means that in 2010, the annual onshore market decreased by over 13% compared to last year, while the annual offshore market grew by 51%, and accounted for 9.5% of all capacity additions.

In terms of annual installations, Spain was the largest market in 2010, installing 1,516 MW, followed by Germany with 1,493 MW. France was the only other country to install over 1 GW (1,086 MW), followed by the UK (962 MW), Italy (948 MW), Sweden (603 MW), Romania (448 MW), Poland (382 MW), Portugal (345 MW) and Belgium (350 MW). For the first time, two new EU Member States were among the top ten largest annual markets.

The total wind power capacity installed by the end of 2010 will, in a normal wind year, produce 181 TWh of electricity (up from 163 TWh), meeting 5.3% of overall EU electricity consumption (up from 4.8% in 2009).

Germany continues to lead Europe in terms of total installed capacity, adding 1.5 GW in 2009 for a total of 27.2 GW. As in other developed markets, growth was hampered by the ramifications of the financial crisis. The leading federal state in Germany in terms of installed capacity is Lower Saxony with 6.7 GW. A number of states now receive 40% or more of their electricity from wind energy, including Saxony-Anhalt (52%), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (45%) and Schleswig-Holstein (44%). The contribution of wind energy to total German power consumption is around 6.2%.

Spain led the European league tables for new installed capacity just ahead of Germany, with additions of 1.5 GW of wind power, bringing its total up to 20.7 GW. This represented the smallest annual wind power since 2003. 2010 was a good year for wind resources, and the country’s wind farms generated 42.7 TWh of electricity, accounting for 16.6% of total Spanish power consumption. Castile and Leon was again the region that installed the most wind power in 2010 (917 MW, or 60.4% of the new installed capacity), followed by Catalonia with 327 MW and Andalusia with 139..MW. As a result, Castile and Leon continues to lead the country in terms of total wind installations with 4.8 GW, followed by Castile-La Mancha with 3.7 GW and Galicia with 3.3 GW. Five out of Spain’s 17 regions now host 1,000 MW or more of wind power.

Italy now has a total installed capacity of 5.8 GW. The regions which added the most new capacity were Sicily (334 MW for a total of 1,449 MW), Calabria (189 MW for 589 MW) and Molise (130 MW totalling 372 MW). The other regions which added new wind power capacity in 2010 were: Apulia, Sardinia, Basilicata and Abruzzo. In the North and the Center of Italy, only Liguria installed 2.4 MW in 2010. The Italian wind power sector now employs more than 28,000 people, of which some 10,000 directly.

France’s wind capacity is also growing steadily and has now reached 5.7 GW, up from only 30 MW in 2000. Overall, wind power now covers 1.8% of the country’s electricity demand. The French wind energy sector now employs around 11,000 people, spread over more than 180 companies. The French government set a target to achieve 25 GW of installed wind energy capacity by 2020, including 6 GW of offshore wind.

In the United Kingdom, around 40 new wind farms were opened in 2010, totalling 962 MW of additional capacity and taking the country’s total installed wind power capacity to 5,204 MW. With 1,341 MW of installed capacity, the UK continues to be the world’s leading offshore wind market. The majority of wind farms in the UK are located in Scotland (2,374 MW), in the North West (1,009 MW) and in Wales (530 MW). Scotland alone installed a third of all new wind power capacity in 2010 (376 MW).

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Latin America: new wind capacity in five countries

The Latin American market seems to be waking up to the opportunity of its enormous wind power potential. While growth in 2010 was still small in absolute terms, with 703 MW installed across the continent, this represented a 50% increase in total installed capacity. In addition, the pipeline for new developments is substantial.

Brazil added 326 MW of new capacity, slightly more than in 2009, and is now host to 931 MW of wind power. Brazil’s PROINFA program was initially passed by the Brazilian Congress in 2002 in order to stimulate the addition of over 1,100 MW of wind energy capacity, which was later expanded to 1,400 MW. It looks increasingly likely that the full 1,400 MW target will be met. Overall, 40 PROINFA wind farms are now in operation, totalling 900 MW, while a further 13 projects (394.1 MW) are still under construction, and the majority of these are scheduled to be connected to the grid in 2011.

Traditionally dominated by just one turbine manufacturer, Wobben Enercon, several other international players have now entered the Brazilian market, including Vestas, Suzlon, Impsa, GE, Alstom, Gamesa, and Siemens. Two renewable energy auctions took place in Brazil in 2010, contracting more than 2,000 MW worth of new wind power capacity. Together with the 1,800 MW of the 2009 auction and new auctions announced for June 2011, this makes for a very healthy pipeline for the coming years.

In 2010, Mexico’s installed wind capacity more than doubled for the second year in a row, with 316 MW of new capacity added to the existing 202 MW operating at the end of 2009. The total installed wind power capacity now amounts to 519 MW. Nearly all the wind projects operating in Mexico are located in Oaxaca (six projects with a capacity of 508 MW), and a further 19 projects are in the pipeline in this region. Other promising regions with good wind potential include Baja California and the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Pacific region adds 176 MW

At the end of 2010, 1,880 MW of wind capacity were installed in Australia, an increase of 167 MW from 2009. There are now 52 operating wind farms in the country, mostly located in South Australia (907 MW) and Victoria (428 MW). Australia’s expanded Renewable Energy Target (RET) Scheme, which entered into force in January 2010, mandates that 45 TWh or 20% of Australia’s electricity supply will be sourced from renewable energy in 2020. The initial target is 12.5 TWh, and this will be gradually increased until 2020.

Following a good year in 2009, the speed of development in New Zealand dropped with just 8.8 MW of new wind capacity added in 2010, taking the total up to close to 506 MW. Wind energy currently supplies just over 3% of New Zealand’s annual electricity demand.

213 MW installed in Africa and the Middle East

In North Africa, the expansion of wind power continues in Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia. Egypt not only saw the largest addition of new capacity in 2010 (120 MW), bringing the total up to 550 MW but also continues to lead the region. Morocco comes in a distant second with a cumulative capacity of 286 MW, 30 MW of which were added in 2010. Tunisia added 60 MW of new capacity in 2010, taking the total up to 114 MW. Other promising countries in the region include Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa, where wind project development is slowly yet firmly underway.

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National policies continue to drive wind power development

2010 was a tough year for most industries, and the wind sector was no exception, with annual capacity additions decreasing for the first time in 20 years. This was primarily a result of low levels of orders during the financial crisis resulting in fewer projects being built in 2010.

The outlook for 2011 is positive, as the global economy is recovering and order books are full again. Global investment in wind power was up by 38% in 2010, and projects will start to materialise from these investments in 2011 and 2012.

Emerging markets such as China, India and Latin America are gathering strength and will continue to drive growth. North Africa is already firmly on the wind energy map, and there are signs that sub-Saharan Africa will also soon complete its first wind projects.

The signs are also positive in the established markets. In the USA, AWEA is reporting a very healthy project pipeline, while in Europe, the offshore boom has only just begun and Eastern European countries are starting to realise their potential.

While the climate negotiations have failed to deliver a new climate deal which would put a price on carbon emissions and provide a powerful driver for wind power development, the wind industry will continue to draw its strength from national policies and measures. These continue to bear fruit, providing both environmental and economic benefits to those countries enacting them.

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Market forecast for 2011 – 2015

Every year in the spring, GWEC undertakes the difficult task of forecasting global wind market developments for the coming five years, and this exercise has become a fixture in our annual report. There is, of course, always a level of uncertainty in prognostication, and never more so than in times of economic upheaval. While the financial and economic crises seem to have been overcome in most markets, the full consequences of the credit crisis in 2008/2009 are only now becoming fully apparent in the wind industry, as the low levels of orders for wind turbines at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 have worked their way through the project development cycle.

For the past five years, GWEC’s forecast, which has always erred on the conservative side, was exceeded by actual market developments. Not so for 2010, where we had anticipated a global market of 40 GW, while only 35.8 GW were in fact installed. This was mainly due to a depressed US market with new wind power installations reaching a mere 50% of those in 2009.

However, there is reason for cautious optimism for 2011 and the following years. Overall investment in wind power was up by 31% in 2010, reaching a record level of USD 96 billion (EUR 70.4 billion), according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. This investment will translate into actual projects in the coming years.

The growth in the Chinese wind sector has continuously outperformed the most optimistic expectations, and 2010 was no exception, with 16.5 GW of new wind power added, accounting for nearly half of the total annual market.

Ambitious government plans, supportive policies and staggering investment in the wind sector in 2010 all lead to the conclusion that growth is set to continue for the years to income, and China will remain one of the main engines driving the global wind sector.

As for the USA, the other major market driving global growth in the past, the future is less certain. The US manufacturing industry is reporting a healthy 5,600 MW under construction at the beginning of 2011, which is considerably more than at the same time in 2010. Given such indicators, we will probably see an upturn for wind in the USA, and the market might recover to its record 2009 level by 2015, or even before.

Overall, GWEC predicts that at the end of 2015, five years from now, global wind capacity will stand at 449 GW, up from 194 GW at the end of 2010. During 2015, 60.5 GW of new capacity will be added to the global total, compared to 35.8 GW in 2010.

The annual growth rates during this period will average 18.2% in terms of total installed capacity, and 11.1% for annual market growth. These rates are considerably lower than in GWEC’s last forecast published in 2010, and they are very modest compared to the past developments. This is mainly due to the continuing uncertainty about the North American market.

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Regional distribution

Three regions will continue to drive the expansion of wind energy capacity: Asia, North America and Europe. Asia will remain the fastest growing market in the world, driven primarily by China, which is set to continue the rapid upscaling of its wind capacity and hold its position as the world’s largest annual and cumulative market. Annual additions are expected to be well over 20 GW in China by 2015. This development is underpinned by very aggressive government policies supporting the diversification of electricity supply, supporting the growth of the domestic industry, and making significant investments in the transmission needed to get the electricity to market.

Sustained growth is also expected in India, which will increase its capacity steadily by 2 GW every year, and be complemented by growth in other Asian markets, including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and the Philippines, among others.

For Asia as a whole, the annual market is expected to increase from 19 GW in 2010 to 26 GW in 2015, which would translate into a total of 116 GW of new capacity to be added over this period – far more than in any other region. In 2013, Asia is expected to overtake Europe as the region with the largest total installed capacity, and it will reach a cumulative wind power generation capacity of 174.6 GW by 2015.

We expect the North American market to remain subdued for the next two years, as legislative uncertainty at the federal level in both the US and Canada continues to be a concern, although the outlook is brighter in several US states and Canadian provinces. We expect the 2011 market to recover to 8 GW of new wind capacity (up from 5.8 GW in 2010), and by 2014, the annual North American wind market will have recovered to its 2009 size of 11 GW, growing to 12 GW in 2015. This would translate into an addition of 50 GW in the US and Canada over the next five years, and take cumulative capacity up to 94.2 GW.

Europe will continue to host the largest wind capacity globally until 2013, when it will be overtaken by Asia. GWEC expects that by the end of 2015, Europe’s installed capacity will stand at 146.1 GW, compared to Asia’s 174.6 GW. By 2015, the annual market will reach 14.0 GW, and a total of 60 GW will be installed in Europe over this five year period.

Large scale offshore wind developments in the coming years will account for an increasing share of the new wind capacity added in Europe, and by 2015, 3.1 GW (about 21%) of the annual market is expected to come from offshore installations. This share is forecast to grow rapidly and will lend new momentum to developments in the following years.

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While Germany and Spain are expected to remain the leading European markets, a larger number of strong markets will become the trend as Italy, France, the UK and Portugal continue expanding their wind capacity. There are also encouraging signs from growing markets in the new EU member states, especially in Romania and Poland, and some non-EU markets, such as Turkey. All of these countries are expected to contribute a larger share to the European total in the future.

Wind energy installations in Latin America will start to contribute a growing share to the global market. Encouraging developments in markets such as Brazil, Mexico and Chile lead GWEC to expect that at the end of 2015, a total of 19 GW will be installed in the region, an increase of 17 GW from 2010. However, this is still far from where many Latin American countries could be, given the region’s excellent wind resource. In many cases, the lack of favourable policy frameworks for wind power development and a lack of political commitment continue to hamper market development. Developments in the past year have shown that the region could still hold some surprises, and there are chances that the expansion of the wind markets could be much larger than what we can see from where we are today.

In the Pacific region, both Australia and New Zealand are expected to start growing at a stronger pace in the coming years to reach annual additions of 1.5 GW by 2015, up from just 176 MW in 2010. This would bring the region’s total installed capacity up to 7.4 GW by the end of 2015. Both countries have spectacular wind resources and a great untapped potential, which is only slowly being developed. However, especially in Australia, the political signals are encouraging, and the healthy wind development pipelines across the region suggest that even more than this could be achieved.

GWEC’s outlook for Africa and the Middle East is least certain. In the medium-term, the regions could develop into small but not insignificant players in the world’s wind market with annual installations reaching 2 GW by 2015, taking the total capacity up to 7.5 GW. However, substantial wind resources in some areas, developments in Kenya, Tanzania and Ethiopia, and a very large potential market in South Africa on the verge of taking off suggest that we could see much stronger growth rates in Africa in the long term.